Canaccord Genuity Chief Market Strategist Tony Dwyer for a second time joins hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher on the Alpha Trade podcast.
“There is no precedent to how high valuations can go,” said Dwyer, making some news on Monday by pulling his 3,300 target for the S&P 500 (SP500). I have no idea what multiple you pay for an “unlimited” Fed, says Dwyer. 20x? 24x? 30x? 100x?
Dwyer is bullish, but not just because the Fed’s new framework and massive U.S. debt loads likely mean 0% policy rates for many more years. There also appears to be a synchronized global recovery at hand. Things won’t go up in a straight line – in fact, the current level of frothiness suggests a correction could soon hit – but Dwyer thinks investors ought to be ready to buy any dips.
Dwyer reminds that the “market” of late is essentially a small handful of names that seemingly go higher each day. For much of the rest of the equity universe, it’s been a bit of a struggle. He expects leadership might soon change though, with cyclical plays like energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) and the banks (KRE, KBE) primed to benefit from the global recovery.
There’s plenty more, including why the current period is way more like 2009 (start of major bull market) vs. 1999 (end of major bull market), the outlook for another fiscal stimulus package, and why zero rates forever might not necessarily drive gold higher and the dollar lower.
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