Indian Rupee, Nifty 50 Await RBI as USD/INR Downtrend Steadies

Indian Rupee, USD/INR, Nifty 50, RBI, Technical Analysis – Talking Points

  • Indian Rupee awaiting today’s RBI interest rate decision
  • USD/INR could be transitioning into consolidative state
  • Nifty 50 just broke above key zone, though uninspiring

After being postponed to this week, the Indian Rupee and Nifty 50 are awaiting today’s Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monetary policy announcement at 6:15 GMT. The central bank is anticipated to maintain benchmark lending rates unchanged following recent upward pressures on inflation.

The RBI will also offer updated estimates for growth in the new fiscal year. For a further analysis of the interest rate decision, check out my outline here. What are the technical circumstances USD/INR and the Nifty are facing?

Indian Rupee Technical Analysis

The Indian Rupee has been struggling to find further progress against the US Dollar after USD/INR fell under short-term rising support from late August. This has shifted the setting into a consolidative state where the pair is ranging between 72.76 and 74.04. A breakout to the downside would open the door to downtrend resumption towards the 72.14 – 72.40 inflection zone.

For upside scenarios, keep a close eye on the medium-term 50-day Simple Moving Average. That is about to fall under the upper zone of consolidation, opening the door to reinstating the focus to the downside. Another threshold that could keep USD/INR pressured lower is a potential falling trend line from June. Keep in mind that in late August, the pair broke under rising support from the middle of June.

USD Forecast

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Indian Rupee, Nifty 50 Await RBI as USD/INR Downtrend Steadies

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Nifty 50 Technical Analysis

Meanwhile, India’s benchmark stock index, the Nifty 50, just broke above the 11614 – 11794 inflection zone. Yet, the formation of a Shooting Star does not inspire confidence of a meaningful breakout. Negative RSI divergence is also showing fading upside momentum. Further upside confirmation places the focus on 12021 on the way towards all-time highs. Otherwise, a turn lower could expose the 50-day SMA.

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Equities Forecast

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— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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