Crude Oil Price Grinding Back to Multi-Month High on Positive Fundamentals

Crude Oil Analysis, Price and Chart

  • Iraq to cut oil production in January and February.
  • Crude oil nears its recent multi-high high print

Oil Forecast

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Crude oil continues to tick slowly higher with Brent around 0.50% to the good at $56.10/bbl. while US crude is 0.40% higher at $52.95/bbl. A report by Bloomberg yesterday, quoting an interview with the deputy head of the State Organization for Marketing Oil (SOMO), revealed that Iraq would cut their daily output to 3.6 million barrels a day in the first two months of 2021 compared to 3.85 million barrels a day in December.

The daily chart shows Brent crude ticking higher and back towards the recent multi-month high trade at $57.36/bbl. The 20-day simple moving average continues to be supportive of Brent, although this may come under pressure shortly due to a series of lower highs off the January 13 print. Today’s trading range is tight and volatility remains low. A break and open above the $57.36/bbl. high would open the way to $59.67/bbl. an old swing low from late February last year before the psychological level of $60/bbl. comes into play.

Brent Crude Oil Price Chart (January 2020 – January 27, 2021)

Crude Oil Price Grinding Back to Multi-Month High on Positive Fundamentals

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 6% -1% 2%
Weekly 9% -13% -3%

IG retail trader data show 51.43% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.06 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to fall.Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias.

What is Market Sentiment and How Does it Work?

What is your view on Oil – are you bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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