Pulling Back From ATH as Germany Imposes Easter Lockdown

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Key Talking Points:

  • Germany imposes strict lockdown measures for the Easter weekend as the country has seen an increase of Covid-19 cases
  • Volkswagen AG leads the push higher in the DAX 30

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GERMANY TO IMPOSE EASTER LOCKDOWN

The DAX 30 is retreating slightly this morning after the German government has announced it will impose a strict 5-day lockdown over the Easter weekend to try and curb the spread of Covid-19. The country had previously relaxed social distancing measures as the rate of infections had seemed to have slowed in most of Europe, but daily cases are rapidly increasing again, with some countries like France and Italy imposing lockdowns in some areas where infections are getting out of hand again.

Markets are likely also concerned about the vaccine trade war between the EU and the UK as officials in Brussels said that they might block exports of the AstraZeneca vaccine to the UK. The European bloc says it doesn’t blame the UK but needs to assure that their vaccine needs are met before any are shipped outside of the EU given how AstraZeneca had over-sold its production capacity. Boris Johnson has already warned officials in Brussels that a shortage of AZ vaccines will undermine the countries ability to fight off new variants, but the EU said the key point was reciprocity, given that the common block has only administered vaccines to about 13% of the population, whilst Britain stands at around 44%, the equivalent of more than half of the country’s adults.

So overall sentiment surrounding Covid-19 has soured again, given how summer holidays now seem to be in jeopardy if this expected “third-wave” takes the reins. That said, European equities continue to be at yearly highs, with the DAX 30 just 1.5% away from its all-time high, but that isn’t really a surprise given how I’ve mentioned before that equities are usually slow to react to the macroeconomic picture.

VOLKSWAGEN LOOKING LIKE THE NEW TESLA

There has also been a driving force behind the DAX’s strong performance over the last few weeks and that is the stellar start of the year that Volkswagen has had, up around 95% since January, with 61% of those gains in the month of March alone. The German car manufacturer has surged in recent months as it unveiled its electric car plans, aiming to sell 1 million electrified vehicles in 2021, bringing it closer to the likes of Tesla, causing many analysts to increase their price forecast for the automakers stock.

DAX 30, Volkswagen AG Chart

DAX 30 Forecast: Pulling Back From ATH as Germany Imposes Easter Lockdown

Source: Refinitiv

DAX 30 Levels

As I mentioned in my forecast last week, I expected DAX 30 bulls to take the index towards the 14,800 mark at which point fatigue would creep in, and so it has. But even now there seems to be a lack of commitment from sellers, despite overbought conditions still in place and many equity indices looking expensive. We’re in a situation where I can’t come up with any good reasons to buy the DAX but I am also not convinced that the anticipated correction will happen any time soon, so it might be a case of wait for the next catalyst and then hop on board.

AS before, momentum continues tilted to the upside, and there are a good few support areas that could halt a selloff before any real damage is done, so I still believe when a correction comes it will be painful. For now though, the area between 14,500 and the ascending trendline at 14,465 looks to be a good area of support in the short-term, followed by 14,140. Given recent price action we may see consolidation between 14,500 and 14,800 in the short-term, but expect to see a retest of the recent all-time high (14,805) if bullish momentum increases.

DAX 30 Daily chart

DAX 30 Forecast: Pulling Back From ATH as Germany Imposes Easter Lockdown



of clients are net long.



of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% -3% -2%
Weekly -9% -4% -5%

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— Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Market Analyst

Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin

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