(Bull) Market May 2021 | Aussie Stock Forums

<iframe src=”//rcm-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/cm?o=1&p=22&l=ur1&category=homegarden&banner=02NMTC702K4D0VHE1SR2&f=ifr&linkID=17e0b4ac3a719000706e772761d8ae0e&t=forexz-20&tracking_id=forexz-20″ width=”250″ height=”250″ scrolling=”no” border=”0″ marginwidth=”0″ style=”border:none;” frameborder=”0″></iframe>

So we move into May. We know April followed the pattern.

I have seen so many blogoland posts re. ‘Sell in May’. Possibly I’m looking for it (confirmation bias) or it just seems that it is a real thing atm. Looking at last year:

Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 12.41.16 PM.png

It was a thing last year too.

Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 12.42.29 PM.png
Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 12.44.10 PM.png

So back to this year:

Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 12.57.04 PM.png

The market is vulnerable, especially after this last April.

The VIX is in dangerous territory. Just waiting to spike higher.

Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 12.45.17 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 12.52.54 PM.png

Looking weak.

Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 12.45.46 PM.png
Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 1.07.00 PM.png

Now 2 days ago that reading was 13.7%. It has halved in 2 days. Not good.

Inflation not a thing currently. Rates still signalling higher.

Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 12.52.08 PM.png

Breadth still weak.

Screen Shot 2021-05-01 at 12.51.30 PM.png

I spent the morning sorting out trades and making sure in the more vulnerable ones that they were hedged. You can see in the ‘Swing Trades’, there is a SPY short. That is actually a pretty major short, given the current weakness. Two of the new positions (TAN, NFLX) have suffered heavy sell-offs already and should fall less in a broad sell-off. I was going to add a lump of commodity exposure, but the markets closed before I got round to it.

Anyway, the point is: markets were really pathetic this last week. There were blow-out earnings from AMZN etc, yawn. Were they ‘priced in’, who knows. But when earnings come in x3 above expected and the stock sells off….sh*t ain’t right.

Whether or not May is a clanger, just beware, this is now very much a shoot first ask questions later market.

jog on
duc

 

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*


+ 59 = 69