PMI RECAP: A rather mixed set of PMI figures relative to expectations and subsequently providing little in the way of a notable reaction in the Euro. French PMI beat estimates across the board, which saw the composite figure at a 10 month high. Although, German PMI missed forecasts on the manufacturing sector and while remaining elevated, new orders fell to a 3 month low, potentially denting the optimistic Euro sentiment.
Euro Area PMIs: A Mixed Bag
EUR/USD: The initial (over) reaction to the slightly hawkish FOMC minutes had been quickly faded. While the minutes showed that a small group of members are talking about when to start talking about tapering QE, it is important what the core group of Fed members think, which at present is that now is not the time to discuss tapering. That said, it is a start in the shift towards discussing taper. EUR/USD held 1.2170-80 (prior resistance now support), which while being an encouraging sign for Euro bulls, the Feb peak at 1.2242 has proved to be a tough area to crack. In turn, with EU PMIs failing to provide the impetus for a topside break, investors may look to unwind positioning, putting the focus back on 1.2170-80. Should this area fail to hold, a move to the low 1.21s can be expected.
EUR/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame
EUR/JPY Levels to Watch
- Despite pulling back from the April 2018 peak (133.48), the cross remains in a well-defined uptrend. What’s more, with risks remaining on the upside for global bond yields, JPY weakness on the crosses looks set to persist.
- Support situated 132.36, which marks the April 29th peak, while the 20DMA resides at 132.03.
EUR/JPY Chart: Daily Time Frame